Berlin, 07 July 2026
Why do freight rates fluctuate in road transport?
Same route. Same weight. Same goods. And yet the transport costs 700 euros more in June than in March. Anyone experiencing that for the first time wonders whether they enquired incorrectly. They did not. Freight rates in road transport are not a fixed price, but the result of supply, demand, costs and sometimes of events nobody could have foreseen.
I explain which factors actually influence rates and why some of them are more predictable than others.
Supply and demand: the basic mechanics
Freight rates follow the same basic principle as any other market. If more vehicles are available than orders, prices fall. If demand exceeds supply, they rise. In road transport this happens constantly – sometimes at short notice, sometimes over months.
An example I observe every year: on the Uzbekistan–Germany lane, the fruit and melon season runs from June to September. During this period, refrigerated vehicles are deployed en masse to export apricots, cherries, watermelons and honeydew melons. The consequence: less capacity remains for all other transports on this route. Anyone needing a refrigerated vehicle or an ordinary curtainsider on this corridor during that time pays more. Not because the forwarder wants it that way, but because the market dictates it.
Seasonality: the predictable fluctuation
Seasonal effects are the most predictable form of rate movement. Those who know them can plan around them. Those who ignore them are surprised every year.
Shortly before the summer holidays, at Christmas and around Easter, demand for vehicles increases noticeably. A transport from Berlin to Serbia costs 1,700 euros in early June, for example. Shortly before the summer holidays the same transport can cost 2,400 euros. Route, weight, goods – all identical. The only difference is that more companies are claiming the same transport capacity at the same time, while some drivers go on holiday and the available supply falls.
Anyone regularly scheduling on the same lanes should factor in these periods and, where possible, book transports earlier or agree contract rates for recurring shipments.
Diesel prices: the direct cost pass-through
After personnel costs, diesel is the second largest cost factor in road transport. When the diesel price rises, freight rates rise too, sooner or later. The mechanism for this is built directly into many transport contracts: diesel floater clauses automatically adjust the agreed rates to current fuel prices.
In the first quarter of 2026 the average diesel price in the EU rose from 1.56 euros per litre at the end of 2025 to 1.96 euros per litre – an increase of 26 per cent within a few months. Forwarders cannot absorb jumps of this size at short notice and therefore pass them on to clients via fuel surcharges or rate adjustments.
It works the other way round as well: if the diesel price falls, there is room to move downwards. In the second half of 2024 the diesel price temporarily dropped below 1.50 euros per litre, which had a moderating effect on rate developments.
Toll costs: a structural cost driver
The German truck toll is not a one-off event but a permanent cost factor that increases step by step. With the toll increase in December 2023, CO2 emissions were included in the calculation basis for the first time. For many transport companies this led to considerable additional costs that were hard to pass on in a strained market environment.
The same applies to other European countries. In Slovakia, toll charges rose by 41 per cent in 2025; other countries saw moderate increases. Anyone regularly driving through several toll areas notices it in their costing. And anyone booking on the same route as a client notices it in the freight rate.
Driver shortage: the structural bottleneck
According to the IRU, the EU was short of 426,000 truck drivers in 2024, equivalent to over twelve per cent of all positions. This shortage is not a temporary phenomenon. The driver population is ageing, too few young drivers are coming through, and the demands and conditions of the job deter many.
Fewer drivers mean less available capacity for the same or growing transport volumes. That affects rates in the long term. On certain corridors or in periods of high demand it is felt immediately. According to the IRU, labour costs in the transport sector rose by five per cent year on year in 2024, with driver salaries rising the most.
Geopolitical events and supply chain disruptions
Sometimes something comes along that nobody had on their radar. Conflicts, new border controls, port closures or sanctions change transport routes abruptly and trigger demand peaks on alternative routes.
In September 2024 Germany introduced temporary border controls at all nine national borders. Measures like this slow the flow of goods, increase delivery times and drive up demand for available capacity on certain routes at short notice. At the same time, the diesel price rose again towards the end of the second quarter of 2025 as a result of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, after having fallen previously.
What this means for transport planning
Freight rates cannot be predicted completely. But many of the factors described above follow patterns that can be understood and used.
Seasonal peaks recur every year and can be planned for. Toll increases are announced. Diesel price movements can be hedged with floater clauses. And anyone who is not dependent on the spot market but agrees contract rates for regular shipments has more planning certainty on both sides.
I recommend not leaving transports on sensitive lanes or with fixed delivery dates until the last moment, especially when known peak periods are approaching. Those who ask early often get better terms and, above all, better availability.
Are you planning transports on lanes where rate developments are hard to assess? Talk to us. We know the seasonal patterns on our routes and can give you a realistic assessment.
FAQ: Why do freight rates fluctuate in road transport?
Because freight rates are not a fixed price but the result of supply and demand. The same route, the same goods and the same weight can cost noticeably more in a period of high demand than in a quiet month.
Several factors interact. Fuel prices are a direct cost factor: when diesel prices rise, transport costs rise with them. Tolls, driver availability, seasonal demand peaks and the balance of traffic on a given lane all have a substantial influence as well.
Spot rates are prices agreed for a single transport on the open market. They react immediately to supply and demand. Contract rates are agreed for a longer period and for a recurring transport volume, which gives both sides more planning certainty.
Seasonal peaks recur regularly before and after major holidays such as Christmas and Easter, and shortly before the summer holidays. Harvest and export seasons on individual lanes also tie up capacity and push rates upwards.
Yes. Transport demand depends directly on industrial production and consumption. When factories produce less and orders fall, more capacity becomes available and rates fall. When the economy picks up, the opposite happens.
Because freight rates depend not only on distance but also on route balance. If there is little return freight available on a lane, the empty run has to be priced into the outbound leg.
Yes, both affect the operating costs of transport companies directly and are as a rule passed on through fuel surcharges or rate adjustments.
Longer-term contractual arrangements with a fixed forwarder are the most effective remedy against short-term fluctuations. Booking early and avoiding known peak periods also help.
Author: Alfred Martin
Position: Strategic Logistics Advisor
Published on: 07 July 2026
